Posterior Ischemic StrokeFORECAST-PCNCT07750015
Derivation and External Validation of the "FORECAST-PC" Prediction Scores
An observational study of Posterior Ischemic Stroke and Cerebral Infarction, run by Dr. med. Alexander Salerno, MD-PhD at 1 site in Switzerland.
Trial summary
This study aims to develop and externally validate machine learning prediction models (FORECAST-PC) to determine 90-day functional outcomes for patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke in the posterior circulation who are selected for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Posterior Ischemic Stroke, Cerebral Infarction, Cerebrovascular Disorders
- What is being tested?
- FORECAST-PC Prediction Models
- How many people
- 732 participants
- Where
- 1 siteSwitzerland
- Study dates
- 1 Jan 2015to 31 Dec 2024
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Adult, Older adult
Study population: The study population comprises adult patients (older than 18 years) presenting with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) attributed to a radiologically confirmed posterior circulation large vessel occlusion. These individuals were treated at 14 international comprehensive stroke centers, with initial participation rooted in the European EVA-TRISP network. Patients were included if they were selected for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) within 24 hours of the last known well time, regardless of whether they received prior intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) or were managed via mothership or drip-and-ship pathways. Participants were required to have a pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of 0 to 3. The cohort explicitly excludes patients whose strokes occurred in-hospital, patients treated beyond the 24-hour window, and patients treated prior to 2015.
Who may be able to join
- Age > 18 years
- Presentation with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) attributed to a radiologically confirmed posterior circulation occlusion
- Selected for Endovascular Thrombectomy (EVT) according to the treating physician
- Pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-3
- EVT initiated or attempted within 24-hours of the last known well (LKW) time
- Includes cases with/without prior intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), mothership, and drip-and-ship pathways
Who cannot join
- EVT carried out beyond 24 hours from stroke onset
- EVT performed secondarily after in-hospital worsening or stroke recurrence
- In-hospital strokes (to avoid the confounding influence of prior systemic comorbidities and the acute event that necessitated initial admission)
- Missing primary outcome data
- Inconsistencies between descriptive dependence status and raw pre-stroke mRS
- Stroke cases occurring prior to 2015 (to account for major changes in endovascular treatment techniques)
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
About this study
Official title: Machine Learning Models Predict 90-Day Functional Outcome in Posterior Circulation Thrombectomy: Derivation and External Validation of the "FORECAST-PC" Prediction Scores
This study aims to develop and externally validate machine learning prediction models (FORECAST-PC) to determine 90-day functional outcomes for patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke in the posterior circulation who are selected for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT)
Read the detailed description
Outcome prediction after endovascular treatment (EVT) for posterior circulation (PC) acute ischemic stroke remains challenging, as current prognostic tools are often limited strictly to basilar artery occlusions or rely heavily on anterior circulation data. The FORECAST-PC study is an investigator-initiated, retrospective, international multicenter cohort study designed to develop and validate comprehensive PC outcome prediction models across key stages of the clinical pathway: Baseline, Pre-EVT, Immediately Post-EVT, and 24-hours Post-EVT. The models are derived from patients across three European centers and externally validated on an unseen cohort from 11 international centers to ensure robustness against geographic domain shifts and variations in clinical workflows. The clinical utility of these models is assessed using Decision Curve Analysis to demonstrate the net benefit of model-guided prognostication over standard clinical assumptions.
- Being tested
- FORECAST-PC Prediction Models
- Keywords
- Machine Learning, Posterior Cerebral Artery, Basilar Artery, Vertebral Artery, Endovasculat treatment, Thrombectomy, Prediction Algorithm
- Medical subject headings
- Cerebral Infarction, Cerebrovascular Disorders
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
FORECAST-PC Prediction ModelsOther
Application of machine learning gradient-boosted decision tree models (Full-Feature and Light versions) at admission and 24-hours to predict 90-day functional outcome.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Derivation cohort | Patients with PC stroke selected for EVT from three primary training centers (Lausanne University Hospital, Bern University Hospital, and Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin). Receives: Other: FORECAST-PC Prediction Models | |
| External Validation Cohort | Unseen patients with PC stroke selected for EVT from 11 independent, world-wide comprehensive stroke centers Receives: Other: FORECAST-PC Prediction Models |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Unfavorable Functional Outcome at 90 Days
Defined as a dichotomized 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 3 to 6 (where 0-2 is favorable and 3-6 is unfavorable).
Measured: 90 days
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted6 Aug 2026
- Study start1 Jan 2015
- Primary completion31 Dec 2024
- Study completion31 Dec 2024
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for Posterior Ischemic StrokeStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 732 participants (actual)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Dr. med. Alexander Salerno, MD-PhD
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor-investigator, Dr. med. Alexander Salerno, MD-PhD, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07750015
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- FORECAST-PC
- Acronym
- FORECAST-PC
- Status last verified
- Aug 2026
- First submitted
- 2 Aug 2026
- Last updated
- 6 Aug 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 6 Aug 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Machine Learning Models Predict 90-Day Functional Outcome in Posterior Circulation Thrombectomy: Derivation and External Validation of the "FORECAST-PC" Prediction Scores
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07750015
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- FORECAST-PC / FORECAST-PC
- Keywords
- Machine Learning, Posterior Cerebral Artery, Basilar Artery, Vertebral Artery, Endovasculat treatment, Thrombectomy, Prediction Algorithm
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Completed
- Enrolment
- 732 participants (actual)
- Lead sponsor
- Dr. med. Alexander Salerno, MD-PhDUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 1 Jan 2015 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 31 Dec 2024 (actual)
- Study completion
- 31 Dec 2024 (actual)
- First posted
- 6 Aug 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
This study aims to develop and externally validate machine learning prediction models (FORECAST-PC) to determine 90-day functional outcomes for patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke in the posterior circulation who are selected for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT)
Detailed description
Outcome prediction after endovascular treatment (EVT) for posterior circulation (PC) acute ischemic stroke remains challenging, as current prognostic tools are often limited strictly to basilar artery occlusions or rely heavily on anterior circulation data. The FORECAST-PC study is an investigator-initiated, retrospective, international multicenter cohort study designed to develop and validate comprehensive PC outcome prediction models across key stages of the clinical pathway: Baseline, Pre-EVT, Immediately Post-EVT, and 24-hours Post-EVT. The models are derived from patients across three European centers and externally validated on an unseen cohort from 11 international centers to ensure robustness against geographic domain shifts and variations in clinical workflows. The clinical utility of these models is assessed using Decision Curve Analysis to demonstrate the net benefit of model-guided prognostication over standard clinical assumptions.
Study design
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Number of arms
- 2
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Derivation cohort | – | Other: FORECAST-PC Prediction ModelsPatients with PC stroke selected for EVT from three primary training centers (Lausanne University Hospital, Bern University Hospital, and Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin). |
| External Validation Cohort | – | Other: FORECAST-PC Prediction ModelsUnseen patients with PC stroke selected for EVT from 11 independent, world-wide comprehensive stroke centers |
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- The study population comprises adult patients (older than 18 years) presenting with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) attributed to a radiologically confirmed posterior circulation large vessel occlusion. These individuals were treated at 14 international comprehensive stroke centers, with initial participation rooted in the European EVA-TRISP network. Patients were included if they were selected for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) within 24 hours of the last known well time, regardless of whether they received prior intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) or were managed via mothership or drip-and-ship pathways. Participants were required to have a pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of 0 to 3. The cohort explicitly excludes patients whose strokes occurred in-hospital, patients treated beyond the 24-hour window, and patients treated prior to 2015.
Key inclusion criteria (6 listed)
- Age > 18 years
- Presentation with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) attributed to a radiologically confirmed posterior circulation occlusion
- Selected for Endovascular Thrombectomy (EVT) according to the treating physician
- Pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-3
- EVT initiated or attempted within 24-hours of the last known well (LKW) time
Key exclusion criteria (6 listed)
- EVT carried out beyond 24 hours from stroke onset
- EVT performed secondarily after in-hospital worsening or stroke recurrence
- In-hospital strokes (to avoid the confounding influence of prior systemic comorbidities and the acute event that necessitated initial admission)
- Missing primary outcome data
- Inconsistencies between descriptive dependence status and raw pre-stroke mRS
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| FORECAST-PC Prediction ModelsApplication of machine learning gradient-boosted decision tree models (Full-Feature and Light versions) at admission and 24-hours to predict 90-day functional outcome. | Other | Derivation cohort, External Validation Cohort |
Primary outcome
Unfavorable Functional Outcome at 90 Days
Time frame: 90 days
Defined as a dichotomized 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 3 to 6 (where 0-2 is favorable and 3-6 is unfavorable).
Results and safety
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 6 Aug 2026.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
The record lists no contact. Use the official record to reach the sponsor.
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Posterior Ischemic Stroke and Cerebral Infarction, run by Dr. med. Alexander Salerno, MD-PhD at 1 site in Switzerland.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 6 inclusion and 6 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: finished, as of the sponsor's last update on 6 Aug 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Switzerland. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Unfavorable Functional Outcome at 90 Days (time frame: 90 days). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 6 Aug 2026.