Blunt Chest Wall TraumaNCT07270354
STUMBL vs TTSS in Predicting Morbidity and Mortality of Blunt Chest Trauma
An observational study of Blunt Chest Wall Trauma, run by Assiut University.
Trial summary
This study aim to compare the effectiveness of the STUMBL Score and the Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS) in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma, and to evaluate which scoring system provides greater clinical utility for early risk stratification and management decisions. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Blunt Chest Wall Trauma
- What is being tested?
- Chest X-Ray and Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast)
- How many people
- 124 participants
- Where
- No sites listed yet
- Study dates
- 30 Dec 2025to 30 Dec 2026
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Adult, Older adult
Study population: The study population will consist of patients presenting with blunt chest trauma to the Emergency Department of Assiut university during the study period from October 2025 to October 2026
Who may be able to join
- Adult patients (≥18 years) presenting with blunt chest trauma.
- Patients who have given written informed consent to participate in the study
Who cannot join
- Penetrating chest injuries
- Pediatric patients (<18 years)
- Patients with incomplete records or who decline consent
- Pregnant women
- Disturbed conscious patients
- Mechanically ventilated patients
- Polytrauma patients
Trial locations and contacts
No sites are listed yet. Contact the study team or a site near you to ask about taking part.
About this study
Official title: STUMBL (Study of the Management of Blunt Chest Wall Trauma) vs TTSS (Thoracic Trauma Severity Score) in Prediction of Morbidity and Mortality Rate of Blunt Chest Trauma
This study aim to compare the effectiveness of the STUMBL Score and the Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS) in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma, and to evaluate which scoring system provides greater clinical utility for early risk stratification and management decisions.
Read the detailed description
Blunt chest wall trauma poses a clinical challenge due to its substantial contribution to morbidity and mortality, particularly following falls and vehicular accidents. Early identification of patients at high risk of complications is critical yet difficult, as delayed respiratory issues often escape initial detection. Traditional trauma scoring systems (e.g. ISS, AIS) lack specificity for isolated thoracic injury, creating a niche for more focused prognostic tools.
Two promising models have emerged: the STUMBL Score-based on age, number of rib fractures, chronic lung disease, pre-injury anticoagulant use, and oxygen saturation-is explicitly designed for blunt chest trauma prognosis. Studies report strong discriminatory performance, with development-phase c-index up to 0.96 . External validations vary: one UK cohort showed STUMBL ≥ 11 had a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 78%, and AUC of 0.84-comparable to clinician judgment ; Italian data demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index ~0.90) and calibration .
The Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS), initially validated in polytrauma ICU patients, yields moderate to good discrimination (c-indices 0.72-0.85) across validation studies .
Though these scores show promise, high methodological bias and limited external validations temper their widespread adoption . A direct, comparative analysis of STUMBL and TTSS within a well-defined patient cohort is thus needed.
- Conditions
- Blunt Chest Wall Trauma
- Being tested
- Chest X-Ray, Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast)
- Keywords
- Blunt, Chest wall trauma, Emergency department
- Medical subject headings
- Emergencies
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Chest X-RayDiagnostic test
First-line imaging for suspected rib fractures, hemothorax, pneumothorax, or pulmonary contusion
Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast)Diagnostic test
Gold standard for detecting:
Rib fractures (especially multiple and posterior).
Pulmonary contusions and lacerations.
Hemothorax, pneumothorax, hemopericardium.
Pleural or mediastinal injuries
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Blunt Chest Trauma group | The Blunt Chest Trauma Cohort comprises all consecutive adult patients (≥18 years) presenting with blunt chest trauma to the Emergency Department of Assiut university between October 2025 and October 2026. Patients meeting inclusion criteria will be enrolled prospectively and followed throughout their hospital stay to record clinical course and outcomes. At presentation both the STUMBL and TTSS scores will be calculated for each patient using standard definitions. The cohort will be analyzed as a single group to evaluate the predictive performance of each score for predefined outcomes (morbidity and mortality) Receives: Diagnostic Test: Chest X-Ray; Diagnostic Test: Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast) |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
To compare the predictive accuracy of the STUMBL score and TTSS in forecasting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest trauma
Measured: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
Secondary outcomes (2)
Easy of use of STUMBL score and TTSS score in emergency clinical settings
How measured:
Completion time measured with a stopwatch (minutes)
Measured: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
To correlate each score with specific outcomes such as pneumonia, need for mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality
Measured: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted8 Dec 2025
- Study start30 Dec 2025 (estimated)
- Primary completion30 Dec 2026 (estimated)
- Study completion30 Dec 2026 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Publications (3)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Blunt Chest Wall TraumaStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- More trials run by Assiut UniversityThe sponsor's other registered studies.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Prospective
- Enrolment
- 124 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Assiut University
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Principal investigator, Mohamed Emad Ahmed Swefy, Assiut University
- Investigators
- Jehan Ahmed Sayed, Professor of Anathesia and ICU, Principal investigator, Assiut UniversityYasmin Elsayed Mohamed Elbeltagy, Lecturer of emergency medicine, Study director, Seuz canal University
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07270354
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- STUMBL-TTSS-BluntChestTrauma
- Status last verified
- Dec 2025
- First submitted
- 20 Nov 2025
- Last updated
- 8 Dec 2025
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No: Individual participant data (IPD) will not be shared because the study is conducted as part of an academic thesis project. Data are limited to internal use within the research team and protected by institutional and ethical regulations
Publications
Seok J, Cho HM, Kim HH, Kim JH, Huh U, Kim HB, Leem JH, Wang IJ. Chest Trauma Scoring Systems for Predicting Respiratory Complications in Isolated Rib Fracture. J Surg Res. 2019 Dec;244:84-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2019.06.009. Epub 2019 Jul 4.
PubMed 31279998Baddam S, Burns B. Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome. 2025 Jun 20. In: StatPearls [Internet]. Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing; 2026 Jan-. Available from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK547669/
PubMed 31613449Callisto E, Costantino G, Tabner A, Kerslake D, Reed MJ. The clinical effectiveness of the STUMBL score for the management of ED patients with blunt chest trauma compared to clinical evaluation alone. Intern Emerg Med. 2022 Sep;17(6):1785-1793. doi: 10.1007/s11739-022-03001-0. Epub 2022 Jun 23.
PubMed 35739456
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 8 Dec 2025. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- STUMBL (Study of the Management of Blunt Chest Wall Trauma) vs TTSS (Thoracic Trauma Severity Score) in Prediction of Morbidity and Mortality Rate of Blunt Chest Trauma
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07270354
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- STUMBL-TTSS-BluntChestTrauma
- Conditions
- Blunt Chest Wall Trauma
- Keywords
- Blunt, Chest wall trauma, Emergency department
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Not yet recruiting
- Enrolment
- 124 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Assiut UniversityUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 30 Dec 2025 (estimated)
- Primary completion
- 30 Dec 2026 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 30 Dec 2026 (estimated)
- First posted
- 8 Dec 2025 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
This study aim to compare the effectiveness of the STUMBL Score and the Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS) in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma, and to evaluate which scoring system provides greater clinical utility for early risk stratification and management decisions.
Detailed description
Blunt chest wall trauma poses a clinical challenge due to its substantial contribution to morbidity and mortality, particularly following falls and vehicular accidents. Early identification of patients at high risk of complications is critical yet difficult, as delayed respiratory issues often escape initial detection. Traditional trauma scoring systems (e.g. ISS, AIS) lack specificity for isolated thoracic injury, creating a niche for more focused prognostic tools.
Two promising models have emerged: the STUMBL Score-based on age, number of rib fractures, chronic lung disease, pre-injury anticoagulant use, and oxygen saturation-is explicitly designed for blunt chest trauma prognosis. Studies report strong discriminatory performance, with development-phase c-index up to 0.96 . External validations vary: one UK cohort showed STUMBL ≥ 11 had a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 78%, and AUC of 0.84-comparable to clinician judgment ; Italian data demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index ~0.90) and calibration .
The Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS), initially validated in polytrauma ICU patients, yields moderate to good discrimination (c-indices 0.72-0.85) across validation studies .
Though these scores show promise, high methodological bias and limited external validations temper their widespread adoption . A direct, comparative analysis of STUMBL and TTSS within a well-defined patient cohort is thus needed.
Study design
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Prospective
- Number of arms
- 1
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Blunt Chest Trauma group | – | Diagnostic Test: Chest X-Ray, Diagnostic Test: Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast)The Blunt Chest Trauma Cohort comprises all consecutive adult patients (≥18 years) presenting with blunt chest trauma to the Emergency Department of Assiut university between October 2025 and October 2026. Patients meeting inclusion criteria will be enrolled prospectively and followed throughout their hospital stay to record clinical course and outcomes. At presentation both the STUMBL and TTSS scores will be calculated for each patient using standard definitions. The cohort will be analyzed as a single group to evaluate the predictive performance of each score for predefined outcomes (morbidity and mortality) |
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- The study population will consist of patients presenting with blunt chest trauma to the Emergency Department of Assiut university during the study period from October 2025 to October 2026
Key inclusion criteria (2 listed)
- Adult patients (≥18 years) presenting with blunt chest trauma.
- Patients who have given written informed consent to participate in the study
Key exclusion criteria (7 listed)
- Penetrating chest injuries
- Pediatric patients (<18 years)
- Patients with incomplete records or who decline consent
- Pregnant women
- Disturbed conscious patients
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Chest X-RayFirst-line imaging for suspected rib fractures, hemothorax, pneumothorax, or pulmonary contusion | Diagnostic test | Blunt Chest Trauma group |
| Computed Tomography (CT) Chest (with or without contrast)Gold standard for detecting: Rib fractures (especially multiple and posterior). Pulmonary contusions and lacerations. Hemothorax, pneumothorax, hemopericardium. Pleural or mediastinal injuries | Diagnostic test | Blunt Chest Trauma group |
Primary outcome
To compare the predictive accuracy of the STUMBL score and TTSS in forecasting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest trauma
Time frame: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
2 secondary outcomes
Easy of use of STUMBL score and TTSS score in emergency clinical settings
Time frame: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
To correlate each score with specific outcomes such as pneumonia, need for mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality
Time frame: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 8 Dec 2025.
- Results publication: PubMed 31279998Seok J, Cho HM, Kim HH, Kim JH, Huh U, Kim HB, Leem JH, Wang IJ. Chest Trauma Scoring Systems for Predicting Respiratory Complications in Isolated Rib Fracture. J Surg Res. 2019 Dec;244:84-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2019.06.009. Epub 2019 Jul 4.
- Results publication: PubMed 31613449Baddam S, Burns B. Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome. 2025 Jun 20. In: StatPearls [Internet]. Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing; 2026 Jan-. Available from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK547669/
- Results publication: PubMed 35739456Callisto E, Costantino G, Tabner A, Kerslake D, Reed MJ. The clinical effectiveness of the STUMBL score for the management of ED patients with blunt chest trauma compared to clinical evaluation alone. Intern Emerg Med. 2022 Sep;17(6):1785-1793. doi: 10.1007/s11739-022-03001-0. Epub 2022 Jun 23.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No. Individual participant data (IPD) will not be shared because the study is conducted as part of an academic thesis project. Data are limited to internal use within the research team and protected by institutional and ethical regulations
Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part.
Jehan Ahmed Sayed, Professor of Anathesia and ICU principal investigator
Assiut University
Yasmin Elsayed Mohamed Elbeltagy, Lecturer of emergency medicine study director
Seuz canal University
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Blunt Chest Wall Trauma, run by Assiut University.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 2 inclusion and 7 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: opening soon, as of the sponsor's last update on 8 Dec 2025. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact Mohamed Emad Ahmed Swefy, M.B.B.Ch (+201061845700, mohameda735@gmail.com), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
To compare the predictive accuracy of the STUMBL score and TTSS in forecasting morbidity and mortality in patients with blunt chest trauma (time frame: 14 day duration follow-up after ED admission). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07270354, which also lists 3 linked publications.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 8 Dec 2025.