Adolescent Well-BeingNCT06815562
Predict the Best Level of Care Placement for Each Child's Behavioral Health Needs - Efficacy Study
A study testing Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) results in people with Adolescent Well-Being and Mental Health Wellness, run by Outcome Referrals, Inc. at 1 site in United States.
Trial summary
The purpose of this randomized clinical trial is to test the efficacy of a new clinical decision support tool, Placement Success Predictor (PSP). PSP will provide placement-specific predictions about the likelihood of a youth having a good outcome in each placement type using machine learning algorithms. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Any age
- Conditions the study is for
- Adolescent Well-Being, Mental Health Wellness
- What is being tested?
- Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) results
- Could I receive a placebo?
- No, everyone receives an active treatment
- How many people
- 213 participants
- Where
- 1 siteUnited States
- Study dates
- 3 Feb 2025to 26 Jan 2026
- Phase
- Interventional
- Are there results?
- Yes, posted in the registrySummary in the doctors' view
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages Any age
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Who may be able to join
- Completed TOP CS assessment
Who cannot join
- None
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
United States1 site
Outcome Referrals, Inc.
Framingham, Massachusetts, 01701
About this study
Official title: Placement Success Predictor: Using Site-Customized Machine Learning Models to Predict the Best Level of Care Placement for Each Child's Behavioral Health Needs
The purpose of this randomized clinical trial is to test the efficacy of a new clinical decision support tool, Placement Success Predictor (PSP). PSP will provide placement-specific predictions about the likelihood of a youth having a good outcome in each placement type using machine learning algorithms.
The primary hypothesis is that if clinical team members have access to PSP results for youth in the experimental group, these youth will have better outcomes at the 3-month follow-up compared to youth in the control group.
Read the detailed description
In 2017, a total of 669,799 children were confirmed victims of maltreatment in the United States; of the 442,733 children in foster care, 34% have been in more than one placement and 11% are in a group home or institution. Stakes are extremely high for making the best out-of-home placement choice per child because some placement types and multiple placements are associated with poor outcomes. In the past few years, legislation has been created to guide placement decisions for children. Federal law 42 U.S. Code 675 requires that children in the care of the state are placed "in a safe setting that is the least restrictive (most family like)." In addition, the Family First Prevention Services Act signed into law by the U.S. Congress in 2018 includes measures to reduce the number of children in long-term residential settings. This study is an effort to develop and test a science-based clinical decision support tool using behavioral health data collected through standard clinical practice.
A randomized controlled trial (RCT) design will be used to assess efficacy of clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) on child welfare clients' well-being outcomes and healthcare costs.
Sample. Clients at the State of Iowa Department of Health and Human Services (Iowa HHS) are the sample for this efficacy study.
Randomization. The outcome of a single coin toss was applied to an undisclosed algorithm for the client's record number to determine who gets assigned to the experimental group (i.e., client has PSP results).
Methods. The Treatment Outcome Package (TOP), a behavioral health assessment, is a standard part of care delivered in Iowa and its completion is required by the state. Iowa HHS clinical teams were provided PSP results for clients in the experimental condition. A request for a waiver of consent for this study was approved by the WCG IRB.
- Conditions
- Adolescent Well-Being, Mental Health Wellness
- Being tested
- Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) results
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) resultsOther
PSP is a machine-learning based clinical decision support tool that is designed to assist clinical team members in making placement decisions for youth.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Access to PSP site-specific placement prediction scores for that youth | Experimental | The PSP system will provide site-specific placement success prediction scores [i.e., client's likelihood of success per placement based on machine learning models] for each youth randomized to this condition in the efficacy study. Receives: Other: Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) results |
| No PSP site-specific placement prediction scores for that youth | No intervention | Not described |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Mean Difference in Average Domain Z-scores Across Raters Within Two Weeks on the Clinical Scale of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) Between a) Baseline and b) Follow-up.
The Child Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) is a 48-item scale for children (ages 3 - 18) that assesses 13 domains. The Adolescent TOP-CS is a 58-item scale for adolescents (ages 11 - 21) that assesses 12 domains. TOP-CS assesses the client's past 2-week experience on domains including Depression, Violence, and Suicidality (scores are risk-adjusted for case mix variables assessed via 37 items on the companion TOP-Case Mix form regarding stressful life events, comorbidity). Participants answer "All" to "None of the Time" for each item on a 6-point Likert scale.
A domain z-score of 0 represents the general population mean. Domain z-scores are averaged into a summary score per participant. Higher (more positive) average z-scores indicate greater symptom severity and lower behavioral well-being (a worse outcome). The value reported is the mean difference in this average z-score between baseline and follow-up; a negative mean difference indicates improvement (reduced severity).
Measured: At baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days later
Secondary outcomes (1)
Mean Difference Between the Average Risk-adjusted Predicted TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Study Baseline and the Actual Average TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Follow-up
The Child Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) is a 48-item scale for children (ages 3 - 18) that assesses 13 domains. The Adolescent TOP-CS is a 58-item scale for adolescents (ages 11 - 21) that assesses 12 behavioral health domains. Participants answer "All" to "None of the Time" for each item on a 6-point Likert scale.
The TOP-CS Total Score is computed by averaging item responses. The range is 48 to 288 for the Child TOP-CS and 56 to 336 for the Adolescent TOP-CS. Higher Total Scores represent better behavioral well-being (a better outcome). Total Scores are averaged across raters per participant. The value reported is the mean difference between each participant's model-predicted, risk-adjusted Total Score (the outcome expected given their baseline profile) and their actual observed Total Score at follow-up. A positive mean difference indicates that the actual follow-up outcome exceeded the model-predicted outcome (i.e., the participant did better than predicted).
Measured: At baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days later
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted7 Feb 2025
- Study start3 Feb 2025
- Primary completion26 Jan 2026
- Study completion26 Jan 2026
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Posted resultsParticipant flow, outcome measures and adverse events reported by the sponsor.
- Publications (3)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Adolescent Well-BeingStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Interventional
- Phase
- Phase N/A
- Primary purpose
- Health services research
- Allocation
- Randomised
- Intervention model
- Parallel groups
- Model description
- Efficacy (randomized clinical trial) study
- Masking
- None (open label)
- Enrolment
- 213 participants (actual)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Outcome Referrals, Inc.
- Sponsor type
- Industry (pharma, biotech, devices)
- Collaborators
- National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), State of Iowa Department of Health and Human Services
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT06815562
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 2R44MH125486-02A1-Aim 2A
- Other IDs
- 2R44MH125486-02A1
- Status last verified
- Jun 2026
- First submitted
- 28 Jan 2025
- Last updated
- 8 Jul 2026
- Results posted
- Yes, on ClinicalTrials.gov
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No
Publications
Baxter, E. E., Alexander, P. C., Kraus, D. R., Bentley, J. H., Boswell, J. F., & Castonguay, L. G. (2016). Concurrent validation of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP) for children and adolescents. Journal of Child and Family Studies, 25, 2415-2422.
Trudeau KJ, Yang J, Di J, Lu Y, Kraus DR. Predicting Successful Placements for Youth in Child Welfare with Machine Learning. Child Youth Serv Rev. 2023 Oct;153:107117. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2023.107117. Epub 2023 Aug 4.
PubMed 37841819Kraus DR, Seligman DA, Jordan JR. Validation of a behavioral health treatment outcome and assessment tool designed for naturalistic settings: The Treatment Outcome Package. J Clin Psychol. 2005 Mar;61(3):285-314. doi: 10.1002/jclp.20084.
PubMed 15546147
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 8 Jul 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Placement Success Predictor: Using Site-Customized Machine Learning Models to Predict the Best Level of Care Placement for Each Child's Behavioral Health Needs
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT06815562
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- 2R44MH125486-02A1-Aim 2A
- Conditions
- Adolescent Well-Being, Mental Health Wellness
- Study type
- Interventional
- Recruitment status
- Completed
- Enrolment
- 213 participants (actual)
- Lead sponsor
- Outcome Referrals, Inc.Industry (pharma, biotech, devices)
- Collaborators
- National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), State of Iowa Department of Health and Human Services
- Study start
- 3 Feb 2025 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 26 Jan 2026 (actual)
- Study completion
- 26 Jan 2026 (actual)
- First posted
- 7 Feb 2025 (actual)
- Results
- Posted 8 Jul 2026
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
The purpose of this randomized clinical trial is to test the efficacy of a new clinical decision support tool, Placement Success Predictor (PSP). PSP will provide placement-specific predictions about the likelihood of a youth having a good outcome in each placement type using machine learning algorithms.
The primary hypothesis is that if clinical team members have access to PSP results for youth in the experimental group, these youth will have better outcomes at the 3-month follow-up compared to youth in the control group.
Detailed description
In 2017, a total of 669,799 children were confirmed victims of maltreatment in the United States; of the 442,733 children in foster care, 34% have been in more than one placement and 11% are in a group home or institution. Stakes are extremely high for making the best out-of-home placement choice per child because some placement types and multiple placements are associated with poor outcomes. In the past few years, legislation has been created to guide placement decisions for children. Federal law 42 U.S. Code 675 requires that children in the care of the state are placed "in a safe setting that is the least restrictive (most family like)." In addition, the Family First Prevention Services Act signed into law by the U.S. Congress in 2018 includes measures to reduce the number of children in long-term residential settings. This study is an effort to develop and test a science-based clinical decision support tool using behavioral health data collected through standard clinical practice.
A randomized controlled trial (RCT) design will be used to assess efficacy of clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) on child welfare clients' well-being outcomes and healthcare costs.
Sample. Clients at the State of Iowa Department of Health and Human Services (Iowa HHS) are the sample for this efficacy study.
Randomization. The outcome of a single coin toss was applied to an undisclosed algorithm for the client's record number to determine who gets assigned to the experimental group (i.e., client has PSP results).
Methods. The Treatment Outcome Package (TOP), a behavioral health assessment, is a standard part of care delivered in Iowa and its completion is required by the state. Iowa HHS clinical teams were provided PSP results for clients in the experimental condition. A request for a waiver of consent for this study was approved by the WCG IRB.
Study design
- Primary purpose
- Health services research
- Allocation
- Randomised
- Intervention model
- Parallel groups
- Masking
- None (open label)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Model description
- Efficacy (randomized clinical trial) study
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Access to PSP site-specific placement prediction scores for that youth | Experimental | Other: Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) resultsThe PSP system will provide site-specific placement success prediction scores [i.e., client's likelihood of success per placement based on machine learning models] for each youth randomized to this condition in the efficacy study. |
| No PSP site-specific placement prediction scores for that youth | No intervention | – |
Who may qualify
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- Completed TOP CS assessment
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- None
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) resultsPSP is a machine-learning based clinical decision support tool that is designed to assist clinical team members in making placement decisions for youth. | Other | Access to PSP site-specific placement prediction scores for that youth |
Primary outcome
Mean Difference in Average Domain Z-scores Across Raters Within Two Weeks on the Clinical Scale of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) Between a) Baseline and b) Follow-up.
Time frame: At baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days later
The Child Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) is a 48-item scale for children (ages 3 - 18) that assesses 13 domains. The Adolescent TOP-CS is a 58-item scale for adolescents (ages 11 - 21) that assesses 12 domains. TOP-CS assesses the client's past 2-week experience on domains including Depression, Violence, and Suicidality (scores are risk-adjusted for case mix variables assessed via 37 items on the companion TOP-Case Mix form regarding stressful life events, comorbidity). Participants answer "All" to "None of the Time" for each item on a 6-point Likert scale. A domain z-score of 0 represents the general population mean. Domain z-scores are averaged into a summary score per participant. Higher (more positive) average z-scores indicate greater symptom severity and lower behavioral well-being (a worse outcome). The value reported is the mean difference in this average z-score between baseline and follow-up; a negative mean difference indicates improvement (reduced severity).
1 secondary outcome
Mean Difference Between the Average Risk-adjusted Predicted TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Study Baseline and the Actual Average TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Follow-up
Time frame: At baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days later
Results and safety
Loading the posted results from ClinicalTrials.gov…
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 8 Jul 2026.
- Posted resultsParticipant flow, baseline, all outcome measures and adverse events.
- BackgroundBaxter, E. E., Alexander, P. C., Kraus, D. R., Bentley, J. H., Boswell, J. F., & Castonguay, L. G. (2016). Concurrent validation of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP) for children and adolescents. Journal of Child and Family Studies, 25, 2415-2422.
- Background: PubMed 37841819Trudeau KJ, Yang J, Di J, Lu Y, Kraus DR. Predicting Successful Placements for Youth in Child Welfare with Machine Learning. Child Youth Serv Rev. 2023 Oct;153:107117. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2023.107117. Epub 2023 Aug 4.
- Background: PubMed 15546147Kraus DR, Seligman DA, Jordan JR. Validation of a behavioral health treatment outcome and assessment tool designed for naturalistic settings: The Treatment Outcome Package. J Clin Psychol. 2005 Mar;61(3):285-314. doi: 10.1002/jclp.20084.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
The record lists no contact. Use the official record to reach the sponsor.
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
A study testing Clinical team access to Placement Success Predictor (PSP) results in people with Adolescent Well-Being and Mental Health Wellness, run by Outcome Referrals, Inc. at 1 site in United States.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: finished, as of the sponsor's last update on 8 Jul 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in United States. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
Yes. Results are posted in the registry (first posted 8 Jul 2026). A summary is in the For doctors view, and the full results are on ClinicalTrials.gov.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Mean Difference in Average Domain Z-scores Across Raters Within Two Weeks on the Clinical Scale of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) Between a) Baseline and b) Follow-up. (time frame: At baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days later). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT06815562, which also lists 3 linked publications.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 8 Jul 2026.