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Liver DiseasesDETECTNCT06523608

Prediction of Decompensation and HCC Development in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

An observational study of Liver Diseases and Hepatocellular Carcinoma, run by University Hospital Muenster at 1 site in Germany.

Recruiting

Looking for participants now. Contact the study team or a site below to ask about taking part.

Sites and contacts
Official record
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Trial summary

The aim of this observational study is to predict the short- and long-term development of acute severe disease events, de novo hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease using the M10S20 (Liver stiffness and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score [MELD] combined) and PLEASE… Read more about this study

Who is it for?
Ages 18 years and older
What is being tested?
Standard survillance protocol and Stratified survillance protocol
How many people
600 participants
Where
1 siteGermany
Study dates
1 Sep 2024to Sep 2027
How long will I take part?
2 Years
Phase
Observational
Are there results?
Not yet: the study is under way

Key requirements

Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.

  • Ages 18 years and older
  • All sexes
  • No healthy volunteers
  • Adult, Older adult

Study population: Patients should be included in the study if they are hospitalized with suspected chronic liver liver disease of viral and/or steatotic origin.

Who may be able to join

  • The patient admitted/referred to study center is hospitalized or is an outpatient with advanced chronic liver disease (based on the BAVENO criteria)

Who cannot join

  • Pregnancy
  • Age <18
  • Evidence of current malignancy except for non-melanocytic skin cancer
  • Presence or history of severe extra-hepatic diseases (e.g., chronic renal failure requiring hemodialysis, severe heart disease (New York Heart Association (NYHA) > II); severe chronic pulmonary disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) > III), severe neurological and psychiatric disorders).
  • Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) positive patients.
  • Previous liver or other transplantation.
  • Patients who decline to participate or who cannot provide prior written informed consent and when there is documented evidence that the patient has no legal surrogate decision maker and it appears unlikely that the patient will regain consciousness or sufficient ability to provide delayed informed consent.
  • Physician's denial (e.g. the investigator considers that the patient will not follow the protocol scheduled).

Trial locations and contacts

1 site in 1 country. Contact the study team or a site near you to ask about taking part.

Jonel Trebicka, Prof. Dr. med. contact

+49 02518359689

jonel.trebicka@ukmuenster.de

Josune Cabello Calleja, PhD contact

+34 688689194

josune.cabello@ukmuenster.de

Germany1 site, 1 recruiting
  • University Hospital Muenster

    Münster, North Rhine-Westphalia, 48149

    Jonel Profesor Dr. Dr. med Trebicka, +49 251 83-59689, jonel.trebicka@ukmuenster.de

    Josune Cabello Calleja, +34 688689194, josune.cabello@ukmuenster.de

    Recruiting

Other trials in Germany

About this study

Official title: Prediction of Decompensation and HCC Development in Patients With Advanced Chronic Liver Disease by the PLEASE and M10S20 Algorithms

The aim of this observational study is to predict the short- and long-term development of acute severe disease events, de novo hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease using the M10S20 (Liver stiffness and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score [MELD] combined) and PLEASE (Platelet, Etiology, Age, Sex und Elastography) scores, as well as the validation of the cost-effectiveness of the algorithm.

Patients in this study are randomly divided into two groups:

  • Control group: patients are examined according to the current clinical standard protocol (biannual follow-up).
  • Stratified surveillance program:
  • High-risk patients will receive an appointment for a hospital visit every 3 months.
  • Low-risk patients could receive an appointment in one year. When necessary, if decompensation develops or HCC occurs, patients could be followed-up more frequently.
Read the detailed description

Patients who are hospitalized with advanced chronic liver disease are randomly divided into two groups.

Patients in the control group are examined according to the current clinical standard protocol (biannual follow-up) or more frequently when decompensation or HCC develops.

Patients in the study group will be stratified for the risk of decompensation/mortality and de novo-HCC-risk, based on the M10S20 ([Liver stiffness and MELD combined]) and PLEASE ([Platelet, Etiology, Age, Sex und Elastography]) scores.

High-risk patients will be allocated for a further computer tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination and an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) examination to exclude HCC and receive another appointment for a hospital visit within 3 months.

Low-risk patients could receive an appointment in one year. Patients in both arms, either outpatient or inpatient, will undergo at each visit an ultrasound examination with liver stiffness measurement and a routine blood test. Other examinations will be carried out according to standard medical care. Blood, urine and stool tests as well as instrumental diagnostics such as duplex ultrasound, CT, MRI, endoscopies, bone marrow punctures, elastographies, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantations, operations, etc. will be performed as part of the usual diagnostic clarification.

Hepatic encephalopathy is a decompensation event that will be diagnosed based on the West-Haven criteria, the number-connection test, the flicker frequency analysis and electroencephalogram. Written consent is required for every admitted patient. Data protection concept: When a patient is enrolled in the study, a center-specific study ID is first assigned for the purpose of pseudonymization.

The data collected is documented in an Excel spreadsheet. The assignment of the center-specific study ID to the respective patient is only possible for the respective investigator (Prof. Dr. Trebicka) and his staff (study nurse). For statistical evaluations, an analysis-specific data table will be created, which can be processed with an appropriate statistics program.

Patients cannot be identified with the data collected and the scientific research that derives from it.

Being tested
Standard survillance protocol, Stratified survillance protocol
Medical subject headings
Liver Diseases, Carcinoma, Hepatocellular

What participants receive

What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.

  • Standard survillance protocolOther

    Patients will be followed every 6 months. They will undergo at each visit an ultrasound examination including liver stiffness and a routine blood test, including AFP. Other examinations are carried out according to the standard of medical care. Blood, urine and stool tests as well as instrumental diagnostics such as duplex ultrasound, computer tomography, MR-tomography, endoscopies, bone marrow punctures, elastographies, TIPS implantations, operations, etc. will be performed as part of the usual diagnostic clarification.

  • Stratified survillance protocolOther

    Based on PLEASE and M10LS20 scores, patients will be followed every 3 or 12 months. Low-risk patients will be followed once per year, and high-risk patients every 3 months.

    They will undergo at each visit an ultrasound examination including liver stiffness and a routine blood test, including AFP. Other examinations are carried out according to the standard of medical care. Blood, urine and stool tests as well as instrumental diagnostics such as duplex ultrasound, computer tomography, MR-tomography, endoscopies, bone marrow punctures, elastographies, TIPS implantations, operations, etc. will be performed as part of the usual diagnostic clarification.

Study groups in NCT06523608
Study groupRoleWhat they receive
Control groupPatients in the control group are examined according to standard protocol (with a biannual follow-up) or more frequently when there is a development of decompensation or HCC.
Receives: Other: Standard survillance protocol
Group with stratified surveillancePatients in the study group will be stratified for the risk of decompensation/mortality and de novo-HCC-risk, based on the M10S20 ([Liver stiffness and MELD combined]) and PLEASE ([Platelet, Etiology, Age, Sex und Elastography]) scores. High-risk patients are allocated for a further CT/MRI examination and an AFP examination to exclude HCC and receive another appointment for a hospital visit within 3 months. Low-risk patients receive an appointment in one year.
Receives: Other: Stratified survillance protocol

What is being measured

The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.

  1. Mortality

    All-cause mortality rate and liver-related mortality rate

    Measured: 2 years

  2. Liver transplantation

    Incidence of liver transplantation during follow-up period and time until liver transplantation.

    Measured: 2 years

Secondary outcomes (8)
  1. De novo HCC

    Prediction of the risk of de novo HCC in patients with advanced chronic liver disease, based on the stratified surveillance, which can lead to earlier detection and treatment.

    Measured: 2 years

  2. Acute liver decompensations

    The acute occurrence of one or more complications of chronic portal hypertension, such as in patients with liver cirrhosis, a stable condition can develop into an acute decompensation. There is as well a new syndrome in patients with liver cirrhosis, which is characterized by a significantly increased hospitalization and a short-term (28-day) mortality rate. This syndrome is known as acute-on-chronic liver liver failure (ACLF).

    Portal hypertension is the driving force behind acute decompensation, while in the course of further decompensation and development of ACLF, an increasing, severe systemic inflammatory reaction is added.

    Measured: 2 years

  3. Therapy in patients who develop HCC during follow-up

    Assesment in the electronic case report form of number and type of therapies used to treat HCC (liver ablation, liver resection, chemoembolization, radiation or systemic therapy) when the patients develop HCC during the follow-up period.

    Measured: 2 years

  4. Analysis of cost-effectiveness of the new algorithm compared to the routine follow-up

    This outcome will be measured using the Markov model, which compares effectiveness based on Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to the costs of each algorithm.

    Measured: 2 years

  5. Analysis of proteome and metabolome in patients included into the study

    Extraction of 40 ml of blood (30ml EDTA blood and 10ml serum) will be taken at each visit to the patient in addition to the regular diagnostics.

    This blood samples will be used to measure inflammatory markers (e.g. cytokines), components of the extracellular matrix components (e.g. collagens, matrix metalloproteinases), markers of bacterial translocation (e.g. LPS).

    Measured: 2 years

  6. Analysis of intestinal and circulating microbiome in patients included into the study

    Extraction of 40 ml of blood (30ml EDTA blood and 10ml serum) will be performed at each visit to the patient in addition to the regular diagnostics.

    A measurement of metagenome and 16S rRNA sequencing analyses will be performed in blood as well in stool samples to determine the composition of the intestinal and circulating microbiome.

    Measured: 2 years

  7. Influence of circulating immune cells in HCC development and progression

    Extraction of 40 ml of blood (30ml EDTA blood and 10ml serum) will be performed at each visit to the patient in addition to the regular diagnostics.

    From these blood samples circulating immune cells will be isolated, in order to investigate their influence on the disease.

    Measured: 2 years

  8. Influence of transcriptome and metagenome in HCC development and progression

    Extraction 30ml EDTA blood for DNA analysis will be performed at each visit to the patient in addition to the regular diagnostics. DNA/RNA extraction is used for transcriptome and metagenome analyses.

    Measured: 2 years

Timeline

From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.

  1. First posted26 Jul 2024
  2. Study start1 Sep 2024
  3. Primary completionSep 2027 (estimated)
  4. Study completionSep 2027 (estimated)

Resources

More details

For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.

Study design
Study type
Observational
Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrolment
600 participants (estimated)
Target duration
2 Years
IDs, dates and publications
ClinicalTrials.gov ID
NCT06523608
Sponsor's protocol ID
2023-237-f-S
Acronym
DETECT
Status last verified
Dec 2025
First submitted
15 Jul 2024
Last updated
22 Dec 2025
Results posted
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
Individual data sharing
Undecided

Publications

  • de Franchis R; Baveno V Faculty. Revising consensus in portal hypertension: report of the Baveno V consensus workshop on methodology of diagnosis and therapy in portal hypertension. J Hepatol. 2010 Oct;53(4):762-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2010.06.004. Epub 2010 Jun 27. No abstract available.

    PubMed 20638742
  • Kamath PS, Wiesner RH, Malinchoc M, Kremers W, Therneau TM, Kosberg CL, D'Amico G, Dickson ER, Kim WR. A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. Hepatology. 2001 Feb;33(2):464-70. doi: 10.1053/jhep.2001.22172.

    PubMed 11172350
  • Jansen C, Moller P, Meyer C, Kolbe CC, Bogs C, Pohlmann A, Schierwagen R, Praktiknjo M, Abdullah Z, Lehmann J, Thomas D, Strassburg CP, Latz E, Mueller S, Rossle M, Trebicka J. Increase in liver stiffness after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt is associated with inflammation and predicts mortality. Hepatology. 2018 Apr;67(4):1472-1484. doi: 10.1002/hep.29612. Epub 2018 Feb 20.

    PubMed 29059466
  • Praktiknjo M, Book M, Luetkens J, Pohlmann A, Meyer C, Thomas D, Jansen C, Feist A, Chang J, Grimm J, Lehmann J, Strassburg CP, Abraldes JG, Kukuk G, Trebicka J. Fat-free muscle mass in magnetic resonance imaging predicts acute-on-chronic liver failure and survival in decompensated cirrhosis. Hepatology. 2018 Mar;67(3):1014-1026. doi: 10.1002/hep.29602. Epub 2018 Jan 24.

    PubMed 29059469
  • Lehmann J, Praktiknjo M, Nielsen MJ, Schierwagen R, Meyer C, Thomas D, Violi F, Strassburg CP, Bendtsen F, Moller S, Krag A, Karsdal MA, Leeming DJ, Trebicka J. Collagen type IV remodelling gender-specifically predicts mortality in decompensated cirrhosis. Liver Int. 2019 May;39(5):885-893. doi: 10.1111/liv.14070. Epub 2019 Mar 7.

    PubMed 30739387
  • Luo X, Leanza J, Massie AB, Garonzik-Wang JM, Haugen CE, Gentry SE, Ottmann SE, Segev DL. MELD as a metric for survival benefit of liver transplantation. Am J Transplant. 2018 May;18(5):1231-1237. doi: 10.1111/ajt.14660. Epub 2018 Feb 19.

    PubMed 29316310
  • Jansen C, Bogs C, Verlinden W, Thiele M, Moller P, Gortzen J, Lehmann J, Praktiknjo M, Chang J, Krag A, Strassburg CP, Francque S, Trebicka J. Algorithm to rule out clinically significant portal hypertension combining Shear-wave elastography of liver and spleen: a prospective multicentre study. Gut. 2016 Jun;65(6):1057-8. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2016-311536. Epub 2016 Feb 19. No abstract available.

    PubMed 26896458
  • Herrmann E, de Ledinghen V, Cassinotto C, Chu WC, Leung VY, Ferraioli G, Filice C, Castera L, Vilgrain V, Ronot M, Dumortier J, Guibal A, Pol S, Trebicka J, Jansen C, Strassburg C, Zheng R, Zheng J, Francque S, Vanwolleghem T, Vonghia L, Manesis EK, Zoumpoulis P, Sporea I, Thiele M, Krag A, Cohen-Bacrie C, Criton A, Gay J, Deffieux T, Friedrich-Rust M. Assessment of biopsy-proven liver fibrosis by two-dimensional shear wave elastography: An individual patient data-based meta-analysis. Hepatology. 2018 Jan;67(1):260-272. doi: 10.1002/hep.29179. Epub 2017 Nov 15.

    PubMed 28370257
  • Castera L, Friedrich-Rust M, Loomba R. Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Disease in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. Gastroenterology. 2019 Apr;156(5):1264-1281.e4. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2018.12.036. Epub 2019 Jan 18.

    PubMed 30660725
  • Wang K, Lu X, Zhou H, Gao Y, Zheng J, Tong M, Wu C, Liu C, Huang L, Jiang T, Meng F, Lu Y, Ai H, Xie XY, Yin LP, Liang P, Tian J, Zheng R. Deep learning Radiomics of shear wave elastography significantly improved diagnostic performance for assessing liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B: a prospective multicentre study. Gut. 2019 Apr;68(4):729-741. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2018-316204. Epub 2018 May 5.

    PubMed 29730602
  • Procopet B, Berzigotti A, Abraldes JG, Turon F, Hernandez-Gea V, Garcia-Pagan JC, Bosch J. Real-time shear-wave elastography: applicability, reliability and accuracy for clinically significant portal hypertension. J Hepatol. 2015 May;62(5):1068-75. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2014.12.007. Epub 2014 Dec 13.

    PubMed 25514554
  • Elkrief L, Rautou PE, Ronot M, Lambert S, Dioguardi Burgio M, Francoz C, Plessier A, Durand F, Valla D, Lebrec D, Vilgrain V, Castera L. Prospective comparison of spleen and liver stiffness by using shear-wave and transient elastography for detection of portal hypertension in cirrhosis. Radiology. 2015 May;275(2):589-98. doi: 10.1148/radiol.14141210. Epub 2014 Nov 28.

    PubMed 25469784
  • Robic MA, Procopet B, Metivier S, Peron JM, Selves J, Vinel JP, Bureau C. Liver stiffness accurately predicts portal hypertension related complications in patients with chronic liver disease: a prospective study. J Hepatol. 2011 Nov;55(5):1017-24. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2011.01.051. Epub 2011 Feb 25.

    PubMed 21354450
  • de Franchis R, Bosch J, Garcia-Tsao G, Reiberger T, Ripoll C; Baveno VII Faculty. Baveno VII - Renewing consensus in portal hypertension. J Hepatol. 2022 Apr;76(4):959-974. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2021.12.022. Epub 2021 Dec 30.

    PubMed 35120736
  • Cassinotto C, Lapuyade B, Guiu B, Marraud des Grottes H, Piron L, Merrouche W, Irles-Depe M, Molinari N, De Ledinghen V. Agreement Between 2-Dimensional Shear Wave and Transient Elastography Values for Diagnosis of Advanced Chronic Liver Disease. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020 Dec;18(13):2971-2979.e3. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2020.04.034. Epub 2020 Apr 26.

    PubMed 32348907

Questions about this trial

What is this clinical trial studying?

An observational study of Liver Diseases and Hepatocellular Carcinoma, run by University Hospital Muenster at 1 site in Germany.

The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.

Who may be eligible to take part?

The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 8 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.

Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?

The record says: looking for participants now, as of the sponsor's last update on 22 Dec 2025. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.

Where is the study taking place?

The record lists 1 site in Germany. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.

What are the possible benefits and risks?

They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.

Are results available for this study?

This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.

How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?

Contact Jonel Trebicka, Prof. Dr. med. (+49 02518359689, jonel.trebicka@ukmuenster.de), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.

What does the primary outcome measure?

Mortality (time frame: 2 years). The study lists 2 primary outcomes in all. It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.

Where can I read the original study information?

On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT06523608, which also lists 41 linked publications.

Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?

No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.

How often is this information updated?

AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 22 Dec 2025.

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