Health Knowledge, Attitudes, PracticeNCT04410692
Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
A study testing Prediction Market in people with Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, run by National University of Singapore at 1 site in Singapore.
Trial summary
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions: How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19? Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market… Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 years and olderHealthy volunteers can take part
- Conditions the study is for
- Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
- What is being tested?
- Prediction Market
- Could I receive a placebo?
- No, everyone receives an active treatment
- How many people
- 560 participants
- Where
- 1 siteSingapore
- Study dates
- 15 May 2020to 17 May 2020
- Phase
- Interventional
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 years and older
- All sexes
- Healthy volunteers accepted
- Adult, Older adult
Who may be able to join
- National University of Singapore students
Who cannot join
- N/A
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
About this study
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
Read the detailed description
The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.
Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".
"SURVEY" CONDITION:
Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of outcomes, e.g. "< 28,900", "between 28,900 and 33,899", "between 33,900 and 38,899", "between 38,900 and 43,899", and "> 43,899". Participants are required to enter their perceived likelihood of each answer option in %.
The 16 prediction questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
Participants have 24 hours to submit their predictions.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
"PREDICTION MARKET" CONDITION:
For participants in the "Prediction Market" condition, the same 16 prediction questions are presented in the form of prediction markets. The prediction market is a well-established method of eliciting people's predictions. The method is briefly described below.
There are 16 prediction markets, one for each question. Participants are given 100 tokens per market, which can be used to buy "stocks" on possible outcomes. There are 5 possible outcomes per market (identical to the 5 answer options per question in the "Survey" condition).
Each stock (i.e., possible outcome) will have a price that is dynamically determined by the central marketplace, which is a function of real-time demand and supply of the option. If the option is popular, its price will become higher, and vice versa.
Participants can trade at any time, and as many times as they want, during a 24-hour period. Upon closure of the prediction market, participants will be rewarded proportional to the number of shares that they hold on options that later turn out to be true.
The final prices of stocks correspond to the group's predictions of COVID-19.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
=====
HYPOTHESES
The prediction market leads to better predictions about COVID-19. The investigators will compare the survey predictions and the prediction-market predictions with the actual realized outcome. The investigators hypothesize that the prediction-market predictions are more accurate than the survey predictions through information aggregation.
The prediction market reduces fear. Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.
- Conditions
- Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
- Being tested
- Prediction Market
- Medical subject headings
- Behavior
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Prediction MarketOther
Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Control | No intervention | Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey |
| Treatment | Experimental | Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market Receives: Other: Prediction Market |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option.
The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
Measured: 24 hours
Secondary outcomes (1)
Fear
Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey. The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale.
Measured: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted1 Jun 2020
- Study start15 May 2020
- Primary completion16 May 2020
- Study completion17 May 2020
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Publications (1)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Health Knowledge, Attitudes, PracticeStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- More trials run by National University of SingaporeThe sponsor's other registered studies.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Interventional
- Phase
- Phase N/A
- Primary purpose
- Other
- Allocation
- Randomised
- Intervention model
- Parallel groups
- Masking
- None (open label)
- Enrolment
- 560 participants (actual)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- National University of Singapore
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Principal investigator, Ho Teck Hua, National University of Singapore
- Investigators
- Teck Ho, PhD, Principal investigator, National University of Singapore
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04410692
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- SG-COVID
- Status last verified
- May 2020
- First submitted
- 27 May 2020
- Last updated
- 2 Jun 2020
- Results posted
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- Yes: Investigators will not be storing or sharing any personal identifiers. All individual level data will be anonymized, and only anonymized data will be shared with other researchers, upon request.
Publications
Camerer CF, Dreber A, Holzmeister F, Ho TH, Huber J, Johannesson M, Kirchler M, Nave G, Nosek BA, Pfeiffer T, Altmejd A, Buttrick N, Chan T, Chen Y, Forsell E, Gampa A, Heikensten E, Hummer L, Imai T, Isaksson S, Manfredi D, Rose J, Wagenmakers EJ, Wu H. Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Sep;2(9):637-644. doi: 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z. Epub 2018 Aug 27.
PubMed 31346273
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 2 Jun 2020. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04410692
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- SG-COVID
- Conditions
- Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
- Study type
- Interventional
- Recruitment status
- Completed
- Enrolment
- 560 participants (actual)
- Lead sponsor
- National University of SingaporeUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 15 May 2020 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 16 May 2020 (actual)
- Study completion
- 17 May 2020 (actual)
- First posted
- 1 Jun 2020 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
Detailed description
The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.
Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".
"SURVEY" CONDITION:
Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of outcomes, e.g. "< 28,900", "between 28,900 and 33,899", "between 33,900 and 38,899", "between 38,900 and 43,899", and "> 43,899". Participants are required to enter their perceived likelihood of each answer option in %.
The 16 prediction questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
Participants have 24 hours to submit their predictions.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
"PREDICTION MARKET" CONDITION:
For participants in the "Prediction Market" condition, the same 16 prediction questions are presented in the form of prediction markets. The prediction market is a well-established method of eliciting people's predictions. The method is briefly described below.
There are 16 prediction markets, one for each question. Participants are given 100 tokens per market, which can be used to buy "stocks" on possible outcomes. There are 5 possible outcomes per market (identical to the 5 answer options per question in the "Survey" condition).
Each stock (i.e., possible outcome) will have a price that is dynamically determined by the central marketplace, which is a function of real-time demand and supply of the option. If the option is popular, its price will become higher, and vice versa.
Participants can trade at any time, and as many times as they want, during a 24-hour period. Upon closure of the prediction market, participants will be rewarded proportional to the number of shares that they hold on options that later turn out to be true.
The final prices of stocks correspond to the group's predictions of COVID-19.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
=====
HYPOTHESES
The prediction market leads to better predictions about COVID-19. The investigators will compare the survey predictions and the prediction-market predictions with the actual realized outcome. The investigators hypothesize that the prediction-market predictions are more accurate than the survey predictions through information aggregation.
The prediction market reduces fear. Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.
Study design
- Primary purpose
- Other
- Allocation
- Randomised
- Intervention model
- Parallel groups
- Masking
- None (open label)
- Number of arms
- 2
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Control | No intervention | –Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey |
| Treatment | Experimental | Other: Prediction MarketParticipants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market |
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- National University of Singapore students
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- N/A
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction MarketParticipants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market | Other | Treatment |
Primary outcome
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Time frame: 24 hours
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format: "What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?" Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option. The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
1 secondary outcome
Fear
Time frame: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)
Results and safety
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 2 Jun 2020.
- Background: PubMed 31346273Camerer CF, Dreber A, Holzmeister F, Ho TH, Huber J, Johannesson M, Kirchler M, Nave G, Nosek BA, Pfeiffer T, Altmejd A, Buttrick N, Chan T, Chen Y, Forsell E, Gampa A, Heikensten E, Hummer L, Imai T, Isaksson S, Manfredi D, Rose J, Wagenmakers EJ, Wu H. Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Sep;2(9):637-644. doi: 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z. Epub 2018 Aug 27.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: Yes. Investigators will not be storing or sharing any personal identifiers. All individual level data will be anonymized, and only anonymized data will be shared with other researchers, upon request.
Related trials for Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
Not yet recruiting
The Effectiveness of Comic-based Learning Materials on Nursing Students' Knowledge, Attitudes, and Confidence in Dementia Care
Dementia Care Education, Students, Nursing
Recruiting
Climate-Responsive Nutrition, WASH, and Heat Counselling for Maternal and Child Health in Sindh, Pakistan
Maternal Nutrition, Child Nutrition
Active, not recruitingPhase 3
PREVENT HPV -Related Cancers Trial
HPV Vaccination, Uptake Vaccination
Active, not recruiting
A Multilevel Intervention to Improve Adherence to Childhood Cancer Survivorship
Childhood Cancer, Survivorship
Not yet recruiting
Pilot Study to Co-create and Implement a Multicomponent Intervention to Reduce Mental Health Stigma in Primary Care
Mental Health, Stigma of Mental Illness
Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
Teck Ho, PhD principal investigator
National University of Singapore
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
A study testing Prediction Market in people with Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, run by National University of Singapore at 1 site in Singapore.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: finished, as of the sponsor's last update on 2 Jun 2020. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Singapore. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths (time frame: 24 hours). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT04410692, which also lists 1 linked publication.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 2 Jun 2020.